@[email protected] 嘿嘿，我在看 Thinking, fast and slow 这本书，第十九章大概就是讲人成功大多靠的是运气！有两段摘抄一下：
“Consider the story of how Google turned into a giant of the technology industry. […] On one memorable occasion, they were lucky, which makes the story even more compelling: a year after founding Google, they were willing to sell their company for less than $1 million, but the buyer said the price was too high. Mentioning the single lucky incident actually makes it easier to underestimate the multitude of ways in which luck affected the outcome.”
“A very generous estimate of the correlation between the success of the firm and the quality of its CEO might be as high as .30. […] In a well-ordered and predictable world, the correlation would be perfect (1), and the stronger CEO would be found to lead the more successful firm in 100% of the pairs. If the relative success of similar firms was determined entirely by factors that the CEO does not control (call them luck, if you wish), you would find the more successful firm led by the weaker CEO 50% of the time. A correlation of .30 implies that you would find the stronger CEO leading the stronger firm in about 60% of the pairs—an improvement of a mere 10 percentage points over random guessing, hardly grist for the hero worship of CEOs we so often witness.”