我鳗鱼 也是一只自由泳的小鸟 @[email protected]

wenn du Minister bist, kannst du nicht richtig wissen und begreifen, was auf der Straße und im Himmel geschieht, denn auch wenn dein Zimmer ein Fenster hat, hast du nicht die Zeit hinauszuschauen: du hast zu viele Besucher, Gespräche und Anrufe. Und während der Hausmeister an den Schneeflocken auf den Mützen der Besucher leicht erkennt, daß es schneit, kannst du, Minister, das nicht, denn die Besucher lassen ihre Mäntel in der Garderobe, wenn sie sie aber dort nicht lassen, dann werden, solange sie auf den Lift warten und in ihm fahren, die Schneeflocken tauen. Das ist der Grund, Minister, warum es dir so vorkommt, als sei draußen immer Sommer, aber das ist nicht so.

#DieSchuleDerDummen #Шко́лаДляДурако́в #读书

我刚坐在办公室，房间里的日光灯突然开始闪烁，然后开始渐渐地暗下去…
不会我携带什么磁场吧​​

我的心情

之前约了一个周五的 Termin，嫌太晚了，网站上说如果太晚了的话可以过会儿再看，因为有人还会取消，当天如果有 capacity 的话也会放新的。于是我这一周以来每天都会去看几眼，但是一直没刷到。终于今天忍不住打电话去问了一下到底有没有可能有早一点的 Termin，结果对面说：你这个事办起来要五十分钟啊，我们没有这么大的空档的。
…早点打电话我就早点死心了…

By February 2010 they had captured the number two Taliban leader, but, as we should expect, they have also been careful not to wipe out the Taliban threat. Doing so would just lead to a termination of US funds.
The US government, for its part, is frustrated that even with $1.5 billion in aid, Pakistan is not sufficiently motivated to beat back the Taliban. As a result, the United States has stepped up drone attacks and the use of the American military to pursue the Taliban within Pakistani territory

草，我才意识到钓鱼这个词来源于 phishing，发音跟 fishing 一样…之前竟从没把这两个词联系在一起过​，一直以为取自姜太公钓鱼​​

Corruption […] provides the means to ensure regime loyalty without having to pay good salaries, and it guarantees the prosecutorial means to ferret out any beneficiaries who fail to remain loyal. What could be better from a leader’s perspective?

最近家里的灯总是闪烁，感觉是什么凶兆​​如果是走线路的灯我还会担心是不是线路问题，但是我的充电小台灯为什么也会闪烁​​

the easiest way to compensate the police for their loyalty—including their willingness to oppress their fellow citizens—is to give them free rein to be corrupt. Pay them so little that they can’t help but realize it is not only acceptable but necessary for them to be corrupt.

和友约了六点在杜塞吃饭，我计划提前一小时过去去商场买我最爱的巧克力，结果我到火车站了才意识到周日商场关门​​

High taxes will inevitably drive people to hide their work and profits. This makes monitoring their income difficult. Furthermore, the large bureaucracy required to run a comprehensive tax system […] can be prohibitively expensive. […] To avoid becoming a slave of their own tax collectors, autocrats often use indirect taxation instead. With indirect taxes, the cost of the tax is passed on to someone other than the person actually paying it. For instance, sellers pay sales taxes to municipal governments but sellers pass the cost on to buyers, making sales taxes indirect.

我还记得 iPhone 刚刚出来，手机触控笔还更常见的时候，我第一次看到朋友的 iPhone 是用手指戳的时候感觉很神奇：手指比键盘大那么多真的不会按错按钮吗？我朋友给我演示了一遍，真的不会按错，我觉得好神奇。
那为什么十多年后的今天我一天到晚在手机键盘上按错字母…

所以勉强能 get 到的 moral 就是 base rate matters…如果有额外信息的话也要考虑 base rate。总感觉作者的例子举得不大好。

昨天买的小小块姜找不到了，怀疑是在柜台上没拿​​

还是觉得好怪啊，他说做估计的时候要结合人口基数和特征描述（是否符合刻板印象），问题是刻板印象完全是一个 heuristic，不存在“人群中 50% 的人符合这个刻板印象”这样的 knowledge，所以到底能怎么结合？而且结合了之后完全有可能结果还是更偏向于刻板印象指示的，为什么要说做出这样的选择是错误的？除非刻板印象完全不靠谱，但作者并不是这个观点..

you see a person reading The New York Times on the New York subway. Which of the following is a better bet about the reading stranger?
She has a PhD.
She does not have a college degree.
Representativeness would tell you to bet on the PhD, but this is not necessarily wise. You should seriously consider the second alternative, because many more nongraduates than PhDs ride in New York subways.

这书里面好多逻辑都好怪啊，比如他凭什么认为 PhD 会更少地坐地铁？他要是说没有大学文凭的人比 PhD 多那含义还明确一点，虽然如果没有大学文凭的人比 PhD 多的话那在地铁里的比例估计也如此，但他加上“坐地铁”的话就让我搞不清楚他到底是哪个意思…

If you examine Tom W again, you will see that he is a good fit to stereotypes of some small groups of students (computer scientists, …

这本书是不是过时了，CS 现在是大热门诶！不过我很好奇基数大了之后的现在计算机专业的学生在大家眼里还有没有 nerdy 的那种刻板印象…

荷语的绕口令怎么那么多​​